IMPACT OF MAJOR JUNIOR PLAYERS GAINING NCAA ELIGIBILITY NHL tells their general managers to prepare for changes that give major juniors NCAA eligibility.

This change will cause a tidal wave of changes to the games ladder of development between the youth, junior, college, and professional levels of play.

The NHL gave the general managers an update on the future of the NCAA and Canadian Hockey League relationship at the GM meetings here in Florida.

“The NCAA is actively considering removing all restrictions for CHL players to play in the NCAA after their CHL careers are done,” Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said on Hockey Night in Canada’s Saturday Headlines segment.

Although anything regarding the NCAA direction should never be considered a given ahead of any announcement, the NHL is preparing for the changes to be made.

“The deal could affect a lot of things, the NHL-CHL agreement,” Friedman explained. “Also, for example, if you get drafted from the CHL, NHL teams hold your rights for two years. If you get drafted out of the USHL or NCAA, they hold your rights for four years. So, all of that would have to be collectively bargained with the players.”

The change in thinking regarding major junior players stems from the NCAA’s new Name, Image, and Likeness rules. Let’s face it, how can the NCAA legally justify allowing a single football player to earn more money from his NIL deals than the collective stipends for every major junior player from the CHL during the 2023-24 season?

What do these changes mean for the balance of junior hockey? In a nutshell, the level of play, at both the NCAA Division I & III levels, will be raised considerably. That will mean that far less players from the pay-to-play levels will get opportunities within NCAA college hockey. In the past, less than 10% of players that aged out the pay-to-play leagues (Tier III) were able to play more than ten games at the NCAA DIII level. Look for that number to dramatically be reduced to less than 2.5%.

The reality is that players from the AAA and stronger high school programs can already bypass junior hockey and go directly to the college club levels.

Combine that reality with the impact the changes will have on the lower levels of professional hockey and it’s easy to see why pay-to-play junior operators across the continent are going to feel the squeeze.

Players from the CHL have been a primary feeder to the Southern Professional Hockey League while others have trickled to the Federal Prospects Hockey League. When those prospects elect to utilize their academic scholarship money (that could be stacked with anything NCAA schools can offer), the lower-level professional leagues are going to have to re-think the way they are doing business.

We are already hearing about conversations among owners regarding a transition to the junior level of play and specifically targeting 18–21-year-olds in place of the older players. Such a move would reduce the operators’ player costs and eliminate the need for Workers’ Compensation insurance.

The North American 3 Hockey League is now selling new memberships for $400,000. At the same time, NAHL teams are moving for $1,500,000 and more. Meanwhile, an SPHL team can be purchased for $300-600,000. A Federal Prospects Hockey League team for $100-200,000.

It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out the advantages that a transition to junior hockey would give the SPHL and FPHL operators. The lower operational costs will also make their league’s more attractive for potential expansion.

The changes will also be all but catastrophic for pay-to-play operators. Their primary targets will have to be prospects looking for an alternative to the high costs of AAA youth hockey. Operators that fail to recognize the shift, and make operational adjustments, will quickly fall by the wayside and entirely out of the game.

What do all these changes mean for today’s prospects? Success in the classroom will be equally as important to whatever happens on the ice. Pay-to-play junior hockey can continue to be an affordable alternative route to Tier II, if the young prospects are able to maintain higher academic standards.

We are in for a bumpy ride.